When should a Texas business lock its electricity rate?
Prices change every morning. Here is how to think about timing without trying to call the market.
2 min read · Updated Sep 9, 2026
Commercial matrix prices are republished every business day, and in Texas they move with natural gas, summer heat forecasts and the ERCOT reserve picture. Trying to pick the perfect day is a losing game; setting up so you never have to is not.
Start early, sign when you like
You can price a contract that starts up to twelve months ahead. That is the single most useful feature of the market: it lets you watch prices for weeks or months before your current agreement ends, and lock the day one looks good, instead of being forced to sign whatever is on offer the week your contract expires.
The seasonal pattern
Forward prices for Texas power tend to be highest in late spring and summer, when the coming peak season is being priced in, and softer in autumn and winter. It is not a rule — 2021 and 2022 broke it — but if your contract ends in August, pricing it in February usually beats pricing it in July.
Longer terms as insurance
A 36- or 48-month term at a rate close to the 12-month price is cheap insurance against a spike. The matrices often show only a fraction of a cent between 24 and 48 months; when the curve is flat like that, the longer term costs almost nothing extra and protects you for years. When the curve is steep — long terms much dearer than short — the market is telling you it expects prices to rise, and a shorter term plus a re-check in a year can be the better bet.
Avoid the holdover trap
If a Texas commercial contract lapses without a new one, most providers move you to a month-to-month holdover rate that is materially higher than any fixed offer. Set a reminder 90 days before your end date, or upload a bill — we read the contract end date off it and pre-select the right start month for you.
What we do with the daily books
We import ENGIE and NRG's matrices the moment they arrive each morning and print the effective date on every quote. The rate you see is checked against that day's book again when you submit an enrollment, so you will never sign yesterday's price.